Did Sec. of State Tillerson's right hand man, Brian Hook, set a major policy shift on refugees?

“…..if he hires Brian Hook, he will be opening his arms to a member of the very establishment he campaigned against.”

Daniel DePetris

 
Update July 31, 2017: More on Hook and the Romney/Bushies, here.
Last night I told you that twitter phenom Mike Cernovich immediately fingered Tillerson’s chief policy advisor, Brian Hook, as the State Department official who okayed the release of an e-mail last month to their refugee industry partners around the world announcing a huge jump in weekly refugee admissions.

(So far we have not seen the bump-up from 900 to 1,500 a week that was  announced as Trump and Tillerson were wrapping up a world tour. That is not to say it isn’t still coming.)
A jump to 1,500 a week for the remaining weeks of the fiscal year would push Trump’s numbers up above 2—56,424 and 58,238—and perhaps as many as 5 of Barack Obama’s years! (Here).
When the New York Times announced the stunning news (we wrote about it here), I and many others following the issue closely, were completely flummoxed—-how could Trump go so far from his campaign promises, and did he think no one was watching?
 ***Update*** Just checked the numbers and there is no sign of any bump-up. We admitted 2,244 in the last 3 weeks (June 2-June 23) which represents an average of 748 refugees a week.
We don’t know if Cernovich is correct, but when you learn more about Hook, it makes sense.
Here is what you need to know about who Rex Tillerson relies on for policy decisions in a State Department being run almost completely by career bureaucrats who frankly hate Donald Trump.
And, incidentally, it easily could have been Hook (Tillerson’s chief policy strategist) who was the leader of the pack stomping on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban while shilling for GEORGE SOROS here last week.
Here is Brian Hook’s bio.
Here is what Alex Pfeiffer (Daily Caller) said about him and his appointment in March:

Brian Hook, a Trump critic and former Bush administration official, is currently serving as the State Department’s director of policy planning, The Daily Caller has learned.

Brian Hook is not only a Bushie, but a Romney advisor and cheerleader. When Trump did not choose Romney for Sec. of State, was Hook the bone Trump threw to the Bush/Romney interests. Was Tillerson required to take Hook?

Foreign Policy magazine previously reported that Hook was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s favorite for the role and a department spokeswoman confirmed to TheDC Thursday that Hook got the job. The director of policy planning is a key position responsible for running the department’s internal think tank, which is home to the secretary of state’s speechwriters.

Hook previously served in the Bush administration in several roles, including as assistant secretary of state for international organizations, and later served as a foreign policy adviser for Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign.

The State Department official also co-founded the John Hay Initiative, a neoconservative group that organized a letter of over 100 Republican foreign policy experts who would refuse to back Trump. Eliot Cohen, another co-founder of the John Hay Initiative, has been a strong critic of the Trump administration.

During the Presidential campaign, Hook disagreed with every one of Trump’s positions, so clearly he is opposed to slowing the flow of refugees to America.

The John Hay Initiative*** advocated for a foreign policy that Trump rejected during the presidential campaign. It called for a tougher stance against Russia and more involvement overseas. Hook told Politico in May, “Even if you say you support him as the nominee, you go down the list of [Trump’s] positions and you see you disagree on every one.”

After Foreign Policy reported that Hook might land a State Department role, Daniel DePetris, a National Interest contributor, wrote, “Trump should know what he’s getting himself into: if he hires Brian Hook, he will be opening his arms to a member of the very establishment he campaigned against.”

More here.
Then we learn even more from a huge article at Politico.  Of course Politico is writing in support of the State Department bureaucrats who, first and foremost, hate Donald Trump and are working daily to undermine his White House (at least on the issue we care the most about, see here).
Politico tells us that because the Tillerson State Department has hired so few people loyal to the President, foreign governments are going directly to Hook or, Jared Kushner!

In theory, the Policy Planning office is a kind of in-house think thank that develops long-range strategy, but in practice it often feeds the secretary of state with views about day-to-day problems. The lack of Trump appointees at the State Department’s regional desks and embassies, and the sidelining of many career diplomats, has added pressure on Hook’s office to develop policy for Tillerson.

It’s also led foreign governments to seek out other avenues of communication. Trump has nominated only a handful of U.S. ambassadors, and some countries have responded simply by reaching out directly to Hook or to other White House officials, including Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Politico tells us that career bureaucrats went bonkers over Trump White House decision on refugees.

Others say asking senior aides who were deeply and visibly supportive of an array of Obama-era foreign policy initiatives — including the Iran deal — to reverse, modify, or unwind those initiatives, is difficult if not impossible. Even before Tillerson’s confirmation, the State Department’s dissent channel — an internal venue for career officials to register concerns with the trajectory of American policy — lit up with protests over the administration’s temporary ban on refugees.

So, did Hook (Politico calls him Tillerson’s “policy brain”) agree to the announcement of a stepped-up refugee admissions schedule to appease the swamp monsters—the long-time bureaucrats who almost unanimously donated to Hillary’s presidential campaign?

Simon Henshaw, Acting Asst. Sec. https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/biog/bureau/213334.htm

And, one more thing.  We have been pointing out for many weeks that the US Refugee Admissions Program is being run by long-time bureaucrats and that there has been no move to find a Trump loyalist to fill the Asst. Secretary of State for Population, Refugees and Migration (PRM) position.
Politico confirms that Trump/Tillerson have made no move to get their own people in place.
LOL! Politico suggests that the ‘career civil servants’ want some leadership, but, at least for PRM, I’m betting they are pretty happy to have no Trump-appointee holding the reins so that they can simply run the show and persuade Hook/Tillerson that opening the spigot to 1,500 refugees a week will go unnoticed.
Politico continues…..

About four months after Tillerson’s confirmation, Hook has told associates that his boss is in no rush to fill the several hundred senior-level posts that require political appointments. Trump has yet to nominate a single assistant secretary, leaving the department’s top posts for regions like Europe, Asia and the Middle East vacant. Instead, career civil servants — “acting” assistant secretaries — are filling the jobs until their replacements are nominated, a move that is eliciting criticism from department veterans.

By the way, it will be a battle-royal in the Senate over the PRM job, but there is no reason that Tillerson can’t (right now!) get an advisor who knows something about the USRAP, and such an advisor/consultant does not require Senate confirmation.  Indeed it should be noted that George W. Bush had to get his Asst. Sec for PRM (Ellen Sauerbrey) in place by using a recess-appointment.
Much more here at Politico.
*** More on Hook at the John Hay Initiative.

Trump crosses 40,000 refugees mark! Over 900 in past week! Syrians lead the pack in last 4 weeks

It has been 4 weeks since President Trump announced his 120-day “moratorium” on refugee resettlement as part of the court-halted Executive Order.  And, for the umpteenth time, I repeat that the President did not have to even announce any “moratorium” or put it in an Executive Order!  He has the power to simply stop the processing!

GW Bush loved refugees, yet at this rate Trump will bring in more refugees than Bush. Bush’s average is about 58,000. At the rate of admission for this past week, Trump will surpass that number. Trump has already passed Bush’s lowest year (2003) of 39,554. https://refugeeresettlementwatch.org/2017/01/27/trump-watch-is-rumored-refugee-cap-reduction-to-50000-that-significant/

Then on March 30th we were stunned to learn that they were aiming to bring in 900 refugees a week through the remainder of the fiscal year that ends on September 30th.
If he and Tillerson keep that pace they will admit around 60,000 this year which is near the average number we have admitted since 9/11.
Do they think we are not watching?
George Bush loved refugees and he averaged under 60,000!

Sure enough, according to Wrapsnet in the last week, from April 6th to today (April 13th) they have admitted 977 refugees in ONE WEEK!

It was yesterday that I noticed Trump had passed the 40,000 mark (it was 40,180 this time yesterday morning).  Today it is 40,602 (you might get slightly different numbers depending on the time of day you check the data, I try to check around the same time every day.)
That is an increase just since this time yesterday of 402!  (See my right hand sidebar where I am tracking the numbers every few days).

Going back to the date that the “moratorium” was supposed to begin on March 16th the Trump State Department has admitted 2,496 refugees.

100 Burmese Muslims admitted to US in last 4 weeks.

Of the 2,496, topping the list are 335 Syrians! 327 of those are Muslims. Other countries, where Trump’s campaign promise of “extreme vetting” was supposed to be put in place (Somalia and Iraq), come in at 283 each, and we admitted 116 Iranians in the last 4 weeks.
Most interesting to me is that we admitted 333 Burmese (that part is no a surprise because we have been admitting Burmese minorities for years and years).
The big surprise is that in just the last 4 weeks we admitted 100 Burmese Rohingya Muslims.  When I first started writing RRW in 2007, we were steering clear of bringing the devout Rohingya to America.

VOLAGs not making so much noise now!

Have you noticed that there are fewer news stories about the Refugee contractors*** screaming bloody murder about Trump (and their loss of federal bucks) in the last week or so? I have.  Has the word gone out to shut up for awhile?
The ultimate test for me will come in September when the Trump Department of State will send its “determination” to the Hill with the proposed numbers for FY2018.  Will Trump simply cave and continue the trend he has begun to bring in the average number of refugees that we have seen in the last 15 years?

Endnote:

We will also be watching to see if the Tillerson Dept. of State will go back to holding public hearings on the size and scope of the US Refugee Admissions Program.  The Obama DOS abandoned the public hearing format in 2015 after several years of hearings that had gotten contentious. See my comments last year here.
The ‘hearing’ is usually in May or possibly early June. We will be watching!
If the Trump team were smart they would hold some field hearings so that citizens impacted by the program could voice their concerns to the Administration—but, don’t hold your breath!
*** For new readers, these are the nine major contractors (VOLAGs), paid by you, to resettle refugees in your towns and cities:

Huffington Post: State Department says it will up refugee arrivals to 900 a WEEK!

We have increased the current pace of refugee arrivals to approximately 900 individuals per week.

(State Department spokesperson)

 
Oh geez! What the heck is the Trump Administration doing?
As we have said repeatedly, Trump’s refugee admissions are not at the mercy of two rogue judges. He can bring in any number under the CEILING set either by Obama (110,000) or his reduced ceiling (50,000).

As far as we know, Sec. of State Rex Tillerson has not chosen a political appointment to head up the Population, Refugees and Migration department that runs the USRAP, thus the program is run by long-time federal employees with close ties to the contractors and to media like the HuffPo!

After resettlement contractors reduced their staffs (their federal funding depends on a per head payment for each refugee they resettle), now, if the Huffington Post is right, their numbers will go up from a previously predicted 400 per week to 900 per week and are complaining about being understaffed!

If you calculate 900 a week for the remaining (approx. 26 weeks in this fiscal year) and add that number to the number of refugees as of today (38,789) the result is approximately 62,189.

To put that number in perspective, the Bush Administration was BELOW that number in 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2008.
Even Obama was below that number in 2011 and 2012! (see here).

(We told you here that as of yesterday they have not ticked-up to 900 a week, yet!)
Here is what HuffPo is reporting:

The number of refugees being resettled in the U.S. has shot up ever since a federal court struck down portions of President Donald Trump’s second executive order on immigration earlier this month.

While this has allowed many to breathe a sigh of relief, it’s placing serious strain on the organizations responsible for bringing refugees to America and helping them resettle.

“In accordance with the Court Order, and consistent with both our operational capacity and our capacity under available funding, we have increased the current pace of refugee arrivals to approximately 900 individuals per week,” a State Department spokesperson told The Huffington Post in a statement on Tuesday. “New refugee pre-screening interviews will continue to be scheduled and conducted at Resettlement Support Centers around the world.”

Trump has signed two executive orders attempting to prevent refugees from finding safe haven in the United States since entering office. Both were legally challenged amid mass protests.

His first order, signed on Jan. 27, halted the refugee resettlement program for 120 days, among other things, and slashed the number of people who could be resettled in the U.S. from 110,000 in the 2017 fiscal year to 50,000.

As a result, the number of refugees entering the country weekly had been limited to 400 people, in an effort to avoid reaching the 50,000 quota too soon (the 2017 fiscal year ends on Sept. 30). Fewer refugees means less money allocated to the agencies that resettle refugees, since they receive federal funding contingent on the number of people they take care of.

Parts of this order were struck down in federal court in February, but the quota remained unchanged. So the 400 per week figure was in effect until Trump’s revised ban was struck down in a Hawaii federal court on March 15, only hours before it was supposed to be implemented.

Continue reading here.
This is further evidence to explain why the Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service is “cautiously hopeful.”
Next, I need to find out what role Congress is playing—have the RINOs increased funding for the USRAP (US Refugee Admissions Program)?

587 refugees admitted since 120-day moratorium should have started, Syrians top list

It has been 13 days since the Trump Administration said it would begin a 120-day moratorium on admissions through an Executive Order blocked by two rogue judges.

Is it Tillerson or Trump leaving the door open a crack?

Instead of doing what the Trump Department of State is legally permitted to do, without an EO, and pause the program, we have admitted 587 additional refugees since I checked the data on the morning of March 16th (moratorium was to begin that day).

Topping the list are 116 Syrians and not far behind 107 Somalis.

Other countries sending us their supposed refugees in the last 13 days include Sudan (22), Iraq (50), Iran (36), Burma (44), DR Congo (23) and one of the most maddening is El Salvador (35).  There is no question that the El Salvadorans are NOT refugees.  Many other countries are represented by smaller numbers.
Each one of these ‘refugees’ will cost US taxpayers tens of thousands of dollars over the next 5 years.
Yesterday we learned that federal contractors are hopeful that Trump will actually aim for Obama’s dream number of 110,000 refugees for FY2017 (which ends on September 30th).
As of this morning, according to Wrapsnet, we are at 38,693!

Trump needs to get a pep talk from the Visegard 4!

By the way, as far as I know, the bureaucrats in the Dept. of State are still running the program. I haven’t seen any news about Trump and Tillerson picking an Asst. Sec. of State for Population, Refugees and Migration.  Have you?

Here we go again, refugee numbers jump, 342 since Wednesday

As we have said repeatedly, and most recently here, the Hawaiian judge did not have the power to slow the flow of refugees entering the US, nor did he have any power to set the ceiling.   That said, a week after the 120-day slowdown was  to go in to effect, the numbers entering the US picked up dramatically since we reported 38,111 as of Wednesday (for FY17).

Who is calling the shots on refugee admissions? Career bureaucrats or Sec. of State Tillerson? Either way, why the big jump in admissions over last two days? And, what is taking Trump so long to choose Asst. Sec. to oversee refugee program?

Today data at Wrapsnet indicates that another 342 refugees arrived in the US in the last 48 hours.  We are now at 38,453!

If the US Department of State had been preparing for a 120-day pause to begin on March 16th, how is it that this large number of refugees was ready to board planes?  Is there anyone in charge (other than the career people) at the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration? Are they still calling all the shots?  Or, is it possible that the White House isn’t willing to fight on this portion of the EO (assuming we wouldn’t notice)?
The top five nationalities among the 342 newly arrived are as follows:

Syria (55 and 51 of those were Muslims)

Somalia (50 and all are Muslims)

Burma (44 and a surprisingly high number of those—17—are Muslims)

Iraq (41 and 32 are Muslims)

Ukraine (32 and zero Muslims)

The top five states receiving Syrians over the last two days are: Michigan, North Carolina, Tennessee, Idaho and Ohio.
The top five states receiving Somalis since Wednesday are: Massachusetts, Georgia, Maine, Minnesota, and New York.
This post is filed in our Trump Watch! category as well as ‘refugee statistics’ and ‘where to find information.’