Except for the “maybe,” that is the title of the story in The Tennessean yesterday, but one only needs to read down a few paragraphs to learn that is not the conclusion that should have been drawn from the news—it is The Tennessean editor’s wishful thinking.
Researchers were not able to “tease out” the information sought by lawmakers—do refugees use welfare to a greater extent then the American-born population? And, no one keeps track of the taxes they pay either.
The Tennessean (emphasis mine):
A new study of foreign-born refugees who live in Tennessee has found they contributed almost twice as much in tax revenues as they consumed in state-funded services in the past two decades.
But limitations of the study — an unprecedented research effort by the state — left the state lawmakers who asked for it with questions on Tuesday.
A committee of House and Senate lawmakers requested the study last summer to try to understand the impact of refugee services on the state budget. They were especially interested in whether there has been a shift in how those costs are covered by state and federal funds. [Here is our earlier report, from August, about the initiative by TN lawmakers—ed]
[….]
Making “conservative estimates,” researchers said that since 1990, the state has spent $753 million on services for refugees — including for schooling and health care — and received almost twice as much, $1.3 billion, in tax revenues from them.
But, but, but!
Researchers couched their analysis with caveats about the data collected, prompting lawmaker questions on Tuesday.
The researchers said both in the study and in answers to questions that they struggled to get some federal data and found most state agencies don’t track whether the people they serve are refugees.
There was no mechanism for tracking which services refugees used, said Krista Lee, senior fiscal analyst, requiring researchers to make certain assumptions. For example, they had to assume that refugees enroll in public schools, government assistance programs and TennCare, the state’s Medicaid program, with the same frequency as the general population.
“From the information we could find, there wasn’t anything substantial stating they wouldn’t be in a similar standing as current citizens,” Lee said.
That assumption left some lawmakers skeptical about the study’s findings. Rep. John Ragan, R-Oak Ridge, said a major impetus for the study was to tease out whether refugees are more likely to rely on government assistance.
Somali: We aren’t looking for welfare, we want the jobs!
“We’re not here for the government programs or any welfare; we’re here for the jobs,” said Mohamed-Shukri Hassan, 27, a Somali naturalized in 2009.
What! Are there no Tennesseans looking for work?
For ambitious readers, we have an entire category on Nashville here.
Update! Reader tomasrose gives us more information on the study:
The way this study was structured, any group that moves to Tennessee – be it, for sake of illustration, the entire graduating class from the London school of economics or the entire population of Bangladesh – will make the same incredibly high per capita net positive impact on Tennessee’s finances. The study assumes that all new arrivals will pay the same taxes and use the same amount of social services as the average Tennessean. According to this study, Tennessee would become a very wealthy state if it took all the refugees that come to America. That is more than absurd of course.